Everyone is wondering what 2019 will bring in Washington and beyond. Of course we will have to wait to find out. We are just a few weeks away from the halfway point in Trump’s first and hopefully last term, and just hours away from the Democrats taking control of the House. We know that a Democratic House will make it a whole new ballgame in DC, with both a welcome check on Trump’s legislative agenda and the launching of numerous investigations into his campaign, administration and finances, sure to produce embarrassing and hopefully incriminating criminal results. As a result, the political temperature and tensions are guaranteed to rise further, with escalating attacks and counterattacks from both sides, and with the White House probably resisting and contesting every House subpoena, likely even up to the Supreme Court, which is bound to be interesting! Trump, always eager to portray himself as the victim, will doubtless be constantly screaming “presidential harassment” to his base. The Democrats certainly run the risk of being perceived as persecuting Trump just for political purposes, but as long as they produce incriminating results, they should be able to keep the political upper hand. Trump has already acknowledged that he would be willing to work with congressional Democrats to get things done, realizing that without their cooperation he will have no legislative “wins” to brag about, but has stated that if they go after him, as they certainly will, it will be all out political warfare. That spells legislative gridlock for anything that the Democrats oppose. 

That brings us to the Trump shutdown, which unfortunately could easily drag on for weeks more. Even though at this point it is still widely perceived as Trump’s creation, which he fairly bragged about on live TV, the longer it goes on, the more Democrats will be assigned some of the blame for not negotiating a compromise. Never mind that it is obviously a political stunt aimed squarely at Trump’s base, just like sending troops to the southern border before the midterm election, that a majority of Americans oppose both a wall and a government shutdown over funding for a wall, and that the administration has only spent 6% of the previously approved funds for border security!! That last fact is something that the Democrats really need to keep repeating publicly over and over, to expose both the hypocrisy and incompetence of the Trump administration. So far I have not heard any Trump surrogates even try to explain or justify that! 

Of course the elephant in the room is the Mueller investigation, which has a high chance of wrapping up this year, perhaps even in the next few months. Mueller’s team has been relatively quiet since before the midterms, aside from events related to the Flynn and Manafort pleas and sentencing, so it is like waiting for a rumbling volcano to erupt. With everything that is publicly known, it is hard to imagine that there are not more major indictments in the works. The questions are of whom and for what, and will either acting AG Whitaker or presumptive new AG Barr try to interfere on Trump’s behalf in any of these, and/or with the anticipated congressional and public release of the eventual report. If that happens, there is sure to be an absolute political firestorm. That brings us to the possibility of impeachment based on the report’s findings and/or on House investigation results. I think there is a good chance that there are legitimate legal grounds for impeachment, but it will be up to the House Democrats to figure out whether it would be politically advantageous, which will obviously depend on the investigation results. My opinion is that If there are clear findings of criminality, whether collusion conspiracy or financial crimes, then do it, regardless of what happens in the Senate, which would likely be acquittal along political lines (although we could be surprised, if there is irrefutable evidence of blatant criminality). Although Bill Clinton’s popularity increased and the Democrats gained congressional seats after his impeachment acquittal, there is a big difference between impeaching the president for lying about an affair and doing so for collusion with a hostile foreign power to influence his election, and lying and obstruction of justice to cover it up, or even for financial corruption! 

Also coming this year is the much anticipated and very crowded field of Democratic contenders for 2020. It will be fascinating to watch that evolve.

And of course there is always the wild card of The Unknown!! It is impossible to predict the occurrence and effects of a major domestic or global event such as a major terrorist attack, a major natural disaster, a foreign military conflict, a confrontation such as with Russia, North Korea, Iran, or an economic crisis. Also impossible to predict is whether Trump will intentionally or inadvertently trigger some kind of national or international calamity.

We certainly have been cursed with living in interesting times! Happy New Year!