So Now What? I Guess 8 1/2 Months of High Anxiety!!

So the impeachment “trial” ended as predicted, the only uncertainty being how many if any Republican senators would vote for witnesses and for conviction, and how many if any Democrats would vote for acquittal. Fortunately there were none of the latter but unfortunately only one or two of the former! Now we also have the predictable reality of a totally unfettered, emboldened and vengeful Trumpmonster, who will not be able to be contained at all by the Democrats or anyone else until the November election. It remains to be seen if the House Democrats even bother trying to do any more investigations, which have proven to be either unsuccessful due to administration stonewalling or ultimately useless. I do think they should continue to pursue whatever investigations they can to keep the discussion/outrage alive, but should also concentrate on legislation, which they also need to play up exponentially more than they have to date. Granted that sort of thing just doesn’t make headlines in the face of all the craziness going on, but they have to keep coming out and talking about it, as well as the rampant obstruction by the Republican Senate to bills benefiting ordinary Americans. We also have to hope that Trump will keep doing outrageous things which will alienate voters on the margins, e.g. his revenge tour on impeachment witnesses and his anticipated pardon of Roger Stone and possibly other former cronies. It will also be interesting to see if and when John Bolton‘s book comes out and what effect that may have. I agree with those who think that he has been motivated by the goal of generating interest in his book rather than any desire to do his patriotic duty. I suspect he realized it would be highly unlikely for the Republican Senate to allow him to testify in the impeachment trial, so he had nothing to lose by trying to make himself look good when he dangled his willingness to respond to a Senate trial subpoena while at the same time stimulating interest in his book, which the White House is now trying to suppress.

As far as the upcoming election, there are unfortunately a LOT of factors on both sides making a Democratic victory difficult. First there is the inherent power of an incumbent president with a strong economy, which usually guarantees reelection. Then there is the unwavering cult-like support of Trump’s base, which will not crack no matter what happens. This is of course bolstered by the incessant alternative reality propaganda pushed by Trump and Fox et al. On the Democratic side, there is the inherent disadvantage of having a much more diverse, albeit larger, base which will have a much harder time than the Republicans agreeing on and enthusiastically coalescing around any single candidate. There is the major issue of a vocal, active and enthusiastic left-wing minority, which has now pushed Bernie Sanders into an early lead, and a less vocal more moderate majority which is being split among a much larger number of candidates. The unusually large field of top tier candidates which has persisted and will apparently last at least through super Tuesday is, at least at this early stage, resulting in the splitting of delegates in a way that is making a brokered convention more likely, now reportedly estimated at 45%! Although still very early, it is looking increasingly likely that it may soon come down to a two person race between Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg, two old white men each of whom would have major weaknesses in a general election. (Who ever would have thought just a few months ago that that would be happening?!) With either one of those as a candidate, maximizing voter turnout, an essential factor in winning the election, will be a major challenge for different segments of the Democratic and independent electorate. Trump must be pleased, although there are some signs that he fears Bloomberg.

I hope that the recent procedural debacle in Iowa is the necessary nail in the coffin for the arcane caucus process there as well as elsewhere. In addition, I really hope that both Iowa and New Hampshire get replaced in the next election cycle as the earliest voting primary states. It makes NO sense to have these lily white states be the ones to filter and substantially narrow a possibly large initial field, in the current cycle eliminating every single candidate of color in the process! However, I am not optimistic about any of that happening, since we are so bogged down and paralyzed by tradition, inertia and special interests.