Heading Towards (a) Fall
As the unofficial end of summer is almost upon us and the midterm general election campaigns are about to swing into high gear, the tension which was ramped up by last week’s courtroom events remains palpable, suspended for a few days only by the sad death of war hero and venerable Senator John McCain and the many tributes to and memorials for him. Even in the course of that national tragedy, Trump simply could not resist exhibiting his truly pathetic pettiness and personal animus in refusing to issue a statement honoring McCain and ordering all government flags flown at half staff through his interment, until he was shamed into doing so by the American Legion and other groups and individuals. At this point it seems doubtful that there will be any more big revelations this week, and aside from the upcoming September trial of Paul Manafort in Washington DC, which has scant potential political fallout for the Trump campaign regarding Russian connections, it seems likely that the Mueller and other related investigations will all be keeping a low profile until after the election. That probably means no subpoena for Trump anytime soon, and I think it is becoming increasingly apparent that Mueller will never subpoena Trump, probably because he has become a target of the investigation. It is also a virtual certainty that Trump will not voluntarily testify.
Meanwhile, in addition to WH counsel Don McGahn now heading for the exit sometime this fall, it looks like the writing is finally on the wall for AG Jeff Sessions, who will probably be fired or forced to resign soon after the election, which will have huge implications for the Mueller investigation. If the Senate remains under Republican control, which seems more likely than not, it is a real possibility, given the abject cowardice of Senate Republicans, that a new AG could be confirmed who would rein in the investigation or suppress the report, if not axe Mueller outright. That would definitely be a good time for some major new indictments if not a preliminary report, in order to demonstrate additional results from the investigation, which would make it harder to justify shutting it down. If the Democrats retake the Senate, then all bets are off with this, since they would not have to confirm anyone Trump nominates.
The one thing we can reasonably look forward to (IF we ALL get out and vote!) is the Democrats re-taking control of the House. That will certainly spawn an avalanche of new and reopened investigations into Trump's campaign and administration, the revelations from which will undoubtedly be damaging, and in conjunction with the Mueller investigation results, if and when released, will probably produce grounds for impeachment. That will probably take at least most of 2019. However, despite a high likelihood of eventual impeachment under those circumstances, conviction in the Senate remains pretty unlikely unless there is unequivocal evidence of criminal conduct by Trump, which would hopefully turn enough public opinion against him to pressure enough Republican senators to go along with it.
Another interesting sideshow is the request by Stormy Daniels’ attorney Michael Avenatti for an expedited deposition of Trump (and Michael Cohen) in their lawsuit against Trump. Even if that request is granted by the presiding judge, it will certainly be contested, possibly up to the Supreme Court, which would likely take months.
Meanwhile, the most consequential activity for the next two months aside from the midterm campaigns will be the Senate hearings and probably successful confirmation of ultraconservative judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. That will obviously have major negative effects for decades to come, and unfortunately also likely in the near future related to any case involving POTUS which gets to the Supreme Court.