Lots New But Alas Little Real Change

A lot has happened in the past month on the impeachment front, highlighted by multiple witnesses, mostly career civil servants, in televised public testimony before the House Intelligence Committee providing compelling evidence against Trump. Most of them appeared despite the White House attempt to block them, although probably the most important witnesses including Bolton and Mulvaney have refused to testify even under subpoena. Yet despite all this, including presidential appointee and Trump megadonor Gordon Sondland, who was directly involved in the process, publicly affirming that there was indeed a quid pro quo, it is pretty clear that there has been essentially no change in either public opinion or in the House Republicans’ monolithic blind opposition to the entire process and rabid defense of POTUS. That is clearly because both sides are totally dug in, with only a few percent of the public still possibly persuadable by anything, and with Trump still maintaining a stranglehold over the Republican base. The good news is that about half the public favors impeachment and removal, which is a plurality and really a pretty large percentage in a situation like this. Despite the Republicans’ constant ranting and raving over how unfair the whole process has been, parroting their dear leader, it still seems inevitable that Trump will be impeached in the House, probably before the end of the month, although almost certainly without a single Republican vote, and possibly even with a few Democrats breaking rank. It is still nearly as certain that Trump will be acquitted in the Senate no matter what the evidence shows, although that will be both historic and fascinating to watch. Also certain is that Trump will continue to play the victim and will never stop crowing about being totally exonerated by the Senate. That will leave us with the 2020 race for the White House as well as Congress as the real critical next step, and it remains to be seen whether Trump having the scarlet I of impeachment on his chest will be politically helpful or harmful. In fact, just as whether the Russian interference in 2016 really changed the election outcome, we may never even know the answer to that.